Bidirectional relationship between sleep problems and long COVID: a longitudinal analysis of data from the COVIDENCE UK study (preprint)

Summary: Background: Studies into the bidirectional relationship between sleep and long COVID have been limited by retrospective pre-infection sleep data and infrequent post-infection follow-up. We therefore used prospectively collected monthly data to evaluate how pre-infection sleep characteristics affect risk of long COVID, and to track changes in sleep duration during the year after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: COVIDENCE UK is a prospective, population-based UK study of COVID-19 in adults. We included non-hospitalised participants with evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and estimated odds ratios (ORs) for the association between pre-infection sleep characteristics and long COVID using logistic regression, adjusting for potential confounders. We assessed changes in sleep duration after infection using multilevel mixed models. We defined long COVID as unresolved symptoms at least 12 weeks after infection. We defined sleep quality according to age-dependent combinations of sleep duration and efficiency. COVIDENCE UK is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04330599 . Findings: We included 3994 participants in our long COVID risk analysis, of whom 327 (8.2%) reported long COVID. We found an inverse relationship between pre-infection sleep quality and risk of long COVID (medium vs good quality: OR 1.37[95% CI 1.04-1.81]; medium–low vs good: 1.55 [1.12-2.16]; low vs good: 1.94 [1.11–3.38]). Greater variability in pre-infection sleep efficiency was also associated with long COVID (OR per percentage-point increase 1.06 [1.01–1.11]). We assessed post-infection sleep duration in 6860 participants, observing a 0.11 h (95% CI 0.08–0.13) increase in the first month after infection compared with pre-infection, with larger increases for more severe infections. After 1 month, sleep duration largely returned to pre-infection levels, although fluctuations in duration lasted up to 6 months after infection among people reporting long COVID. Interpretation: Our findings highlight the bidirectional relationship between sleep and long COVID. While poor-quality sleep before SARS-CoV-2 infection associates with increased risk of long COVID thereafter, changes in sleep duration after infection in these non-hospitalised cases were modest and generally quick to resolve.

One year health outcomes associated with systemic corticosteroids for COVID-19: a longitudinal cohort study (preprint)

BackgroundIn patients with COVID-19 requiring supplemental oxygen, dexamethasone reduces acute severity and improves survival, but longer-term effects are unknown. We hypothesised that systemic corticosteroid administration during acute COVID-19 would be associated with improved health-related quality of life (HRQoL) one year after discharge. MethodsAdults admitted to hospital between February 2020 and March 2021 for COVID-19 and meeting current guideline recommendations for dexamethasone treatment were included using two prospective UK cohort studies. HRQoL, assessed by EQ-5D-5L utility index, pre-hospital and one year after discharge were compared between those receiving corticosteroids or not after propensity weighting for treatment. Secondary outcomes included patient reported recovery, physical and mental health status, and measures of organ impairment. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to account for survival and selection bias. FindingsIn 1,888 participants included in the primary analysis, 1,149 received corticosteroids. There was no between-group difference in EQ-5D-5L utility index at one year (mean difference 0.004, 95% CI: -0.026 to 0.034, p = 0.77). A similar reduction in EQ-5D-5L was seen at one year between corticosteroid exposed and non-exposed groups (mean (SD) change -0.12 (0.22) vs -0.11 (0.22), p = 0.32). Overall, there were no differences in secondary outcome measures. After sensitivity analyses modelled using a larger cohort of 109,318 patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, EQ-5D-5L utility index at one year remained similar between the two groups. InterpretationSystemic corticosteroids for acute COVID-19 have no impact on the large reduction in HRQoL one year after hospital discharge. Treatments to address this are urgently needed. Take home messageSystemic corticosteroids given for acute COVID-19 do not affect health-related quality of life or other patient reported outcomes, physical and mental health outcomes, and organ function one year after hospital discharge

Rebound in asthma exacerbations following relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions: a longitudinal population-based study (COVIDENCE UK) (preprint)

BackgroundThe imposition of restrictions on social mixing early in the COVID-19 pandemic was followed by a reduction in asthma exacerbations in multiple settings internationally. Temporal trends in social mixing, incident acute respiratory infections (ARI) and asthma exacerbations following relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions have not yet been described. MethodsWe conducted a population-based longitudinal study in 2,312 UK adults with asthma between November 2020 and April 2022. Details of face covering use, social mixing, incident ARI and moderate/severe asthma exacerbations were collected via monthly on-line questionnaires. Temporal changes in these parameters were visualised using Poisson generalised additive models. Multilevel logistic regression was used to test for associations between incident ARI and risk of asthma exacerbations, adjusting for potential confounders. ResultsRelaxation of COVID-19 restrictions from April 2021 coincided with reduced face covering use (p<0.001), increased frequency of indoor visits to public places and other households (p<0.001) and rising incidence of COVID-19 (p<0.001), non-COVID-19 ARI (p<0.001) and moderate/severe asthma exacerbations (p=0.007). Incident non-COVID-19 ARI associated independently with increased risk of asthma exacerbation (adjusted odds ratio 5.75, 95% CI 4.75 to 6.97) as did incident COVID-19, both prior to emergence of the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 (5.89, 3.45 to 10.04) and subsequently (5.69, 3.89 to 8.31). ConclusionsRelaxation of COVID-19 restrictions coincided with decreased face covering use, increased social mixing and a rebound in ARI and asthma exacerbations. Associations between incident ARI and risk of moderate/severe asthma exacerbation were similar for non-COVID-19 ARI and COVID-19, both before and after emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant. FundingBarts Charity, UKRI

Vitamin D Supplements for Prevention of Covid-19 or other Acute Respiratory Infections: a Phase 3 Randomized Controlled Trial (CORONAVIT) (preprint)

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D metabolites support innate immune responses to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and other respiratory pathogens. Randomized controlled trials of vitamin D to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) have not yet reported. METHODS: We randomly assigned 6200 U.K. adults to receive an offer of a postal finger-prick 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) test with provision of a 6-month supply of higher-dose vitamin D (3200 IU/d, n=1550) or lower-dose vitamin D (800 IU/d, n=1550) to those with blood 25(OH)D concentration <75 nmol/L, vs. no offer of testing or supplementation (n=3100). The primary outcome was the proportion of participants experiencing at least one swab test- or doctor-confirmed acute respiratory infection (ARI) of any cause at six months. Secondary outcomes included incidence of swab test-confirmed Covid-19. RESULTS: Of 3100 participants offered testing, 2958 (95.4%) accepted, and 2690 (86.8%) had 25(OH)D <75 nmol/L and were sent vitamin D supplements (1356 higher-dose, 1334 lower-dose). 76 (5.0%) vs. 87 (5.7%) vs. 136 (4.6%) participants in higher-dose vs. lower-dose vs. no-offer groups experienced at least one ARI of any cause (odds ratio [OR] for higher-dose vs. no-offer 1.09, 95% CI 0.82-1.46; lower-dose vs. no-offer 1.26, 0.96-1.66). 45 (3.0%) vs. 55 (3.6%) vs. 78 (2.6%) participants in higher-dose vs. lower-dose vs. no-offer groups developed Covid-19 (OR for higher-dose vs. no-offer 1.13, 0.78-1.63; lower-dose vs. no-offer 1.39, 0.98-1.97). CONCLUSIONS: Among adults with a high baseline prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency, implementation of a test-and-treat approach to vitamin D replacement did not reduce risk of all-cause ARI or Covid-19.

Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of Long-COVID and association with one-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study (preprint)

Background There are currently no effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions for Long-COVID. To identify potential therapeutic targets, we focussed on previously described four recovery clusters five months after hospital discharge, their underlying inflammatory profiles and relationship with clinical outcomes at one year. Methods PHOSP-COVID is a prospective longitudinal cohort study, recruiting adults hospitalised with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient reported outcomes measures (PROMs), physical performance, and organ function at five-months and one-year after hospital discharge. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at one-year. Cluster analysis was performed using clustering large applications (CLARA) k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at five-months. Inflammatory protein profiling from plasma at the five-month visit was performed. Findings 2320 participants have been assessed at five months after discharge and 807 participants have completed both five-month and one-year visits. Of these, 35.6% were female, mean age 58.7 (SD 12.5) years, and 27.8% received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between five months 501/165 (25.6%) and one year 232/804 (28.9%). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at one year were: female sex OR 0.68 (95% CI 0.46-0.99), obesity OR 0.50 (95%CI 0.34-0.74) and IMV OR 0.42 (95%CI 0.23-0.76). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate/cognitive, mild relating to the severity of physical, mental health and cognitive impairments at five months in a larger sample. There was elevation of inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate/cognitive clusters compared to the mild cluster including interleukin-6 which was elevated in both comparisons. Overall, there was a substantial deficit in median (IQR) EQ5D-5L utility index from pre-COVID (retrospective assessment) 0.88 (0.74-1.00), five months 0.74 (0.60-0.88) to one year: 0.74 (0.59-0.88), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at one-year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters. Interpretation The sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 remain substantial one year after discharge across a range of health domains with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient perceived health-related quality of life remains reduced at one year compared to pre-hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials.

Risk Factors for Developing COVID-19: A Population-Based Longitudinal Study (COVIDENCE UK) (preprint)

Background: Risk factors for severe COVID-19 include older age, male sex, obesity, Black or Asian ethnicity and underlying medical conditions. Whether these factors also influence susceptibility to developing COVID-19 is uncertain. Methods: We undertook a prospective, population-based cohort study (COVIDENCE UK) from 1 st May 2020 to 5 th February 2021 . Baseline information on potential risk factors was captured by an online questionnaire. Monthly follow-up questionnaires captured incident COVID-19. We used logistic regression models to estimate multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for associations between potential risk factors and risk of COVID-19. Findings: We recorded 446 incident cases of COVID-19 in 15,227 participants (2.9%). Increased risk of developing COVID-19 was independently associated with Asian/Asian British vs . White ethnicity (aOR 2.31, 95% CI 1.35-3.95), household overcrowding (aOR per additional 0.5 people/bedroom 1.26, 1.11-1.43) , any vs . no visits to/from other households in previous week (aOR 1.33, 1.07-1.64), number of visits to indoor public places (aOR per extra visit per week 1.05, 1.01-1.09), frontline occupation excluding health/social care vs. no frontline occupation (aOR 1.49, 1.12-1.98), and raised body mass index (BMI) (aOR 1.51 [1.20-1.90] for BMI 25.0-30.0 kg/m 2 and 1.38 [1.05-1.82] for BMI >30.0 kg/m 2 vs. BMI <25.0 kg/m 2 ). Atopic disease was independently associated with decreased risk (aOR 0.76, 0.59-0.98). No independent associations were seen for age, sex, other medical conditions, diet, or micronutrient supplement use. Interpretation: After rigorous adjustment for factors influencing exposure to SARS-CoV-2, Asian/Asian British ethnicity and raised BMI were associated with increased risk of developing COVID-19, while atopic disease was associated with decreased risk. Trial Registration: It is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04330599). Funding: Barts Charity, Health Data Research UK Declaration of Interest: None to declare. Ethical Approval: The study was sponsored by Queen Mary University of London and approved by<br>Leicester South Research Ethics Committee (ref 20/EM/0117).

Risk factors for developing COVID-19: a population-based longitudinal study (COVIDENCE UK) (preprint)

Summary Background Risk factors for severe COVID-19 include older age, male sex, obesity, Black or Asian ethnicity and underlying medical conditions. Whether these factors also influence susceptibility to developing COVID-19 is uncertain. Methods We undertook a prospective, population-based cohort study (COVIDENCE UK) from 1 st May 2020 to 5 th February 2021. Baseline information on potential risk factors was captured by an online questionnaire. Monthly follow-up questionnaires captured incident COVID-19. We used logistic regression models to estimate multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for associations between potential risk factors and risk of COVID-19. Findings We recorded 446 incident cases of COVID-19 in 15,227 participants (2.9%). Increased risk of developing COVID-19 was independently associated with Asian/Asian British vs . White ethnicity (aOR 2.31, 95% CI 1.35-3.95), household overcrowding (aOR per additional 0.5 people/bedroom 1.26, 1.11-1.43), any vs . no visits to/from other households in previous week (aOR 1.33, 1.07-1.64), number of visits to indoor public places (aOR per extra visit per week 1.05, 1.01-1.09), frontline occupation excluding health/social care vs . no frontline occupation (aOR 1.49, 1.12-1.98), and raised body mass index (BMI) (aOR 1.51 [1.20-1.90] for BMI 25.0-30.0 kg/m 2 and 1.38 [1.05-1.82] for BMI >30.0 kg/m 2 vs . BMI <25.0 kg/m 2 ). Atopic disease was independently associated with decreased risk (aOR 0.76, 0.59-0.98). No independent associations were seen for age, sex, other medical conditions, diet, or micronutrient supplement use. Interpretation After rigorous adjustment for factors influencing exposure to SARS-CoV-2, Asian/Asian British ethnicity and raised BMI were associated with increased risk of developing COVID-19, while atopic disease was associated with decreased risk. Funding Barts Charity, Health Data Research UK

Physical, cognitive and mental health impacts of COVID-19 following hospitalisation: a multi-centre prospective cohort study (preprint)

Background The impact of COVID-19 on physical and mental health, and employment following hospitalisation is poorly understood. Methods PHOSP-COVID is a multi-centre, UK, observational study of adults discharged from hospital with a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 involving an assessment between two- and seven-months later including detailed symptom, physiological and biochemical testing. Multivariable logistic regression was performed for patient-perceived recovery with age, sex, ethnicity, body mass index (BMI), co-morbidities, and severity of acute illness as co-variates. Cluster analysis was performed using outcomes for breathlessness, fatigue, mental health, cognition and physical function. Findings We report findings of 1077 patients discharged in 2020, from the assessment undertaken a median 5 [IQR4 to 6] months later: 36% female, mean age 58 [SD 13] years, 69% white ethnicity, 27% mechanical ventilation, and 50% had at least two co-morbidities. At follow-up only 29% felt fully recovered, 20% had a new disability, and 19% experienced a health-related change in occupation. Factors associated with failure to recover were female, middle-age, white ethnicity, two or more co-morbidities, and more severe acute illness. The magnitude of the persistent health burden was substantial and weakly related to acute severity. Four clusters were identified with different severities of mental and physical health impairment: 1) Very severe (17%), 2) Severe (21%), 3) Moderate with cognitive impairment (17%), 4) Mild (46%), with 3%, 7%, 36% and 43% feeling fully recovered, respectively. Persistent systemic inflammation determined by C-reactive protein was related to cluster severity, but not acute illness severity. Interpretation We identified factors related to recovery from a hospital admission with COVID-19 and four different phenotypes relating to the severity of physical, mental, and cognitive health five months later. The implications for clinical care include the potential to stratify care and the need for a pro-active approach with wide-access to COVID-19 holistic clinical services. Funding: UKRI and NIHR

Design of Specific Primer Set for Detection of B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 Variant using Deep Learning (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 lineage, also known as clade GR from Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID), Nextstrain clade 20B, or Variant Under Investigation in December 2020 (VUI - 202012/01), appears to have an increased transmissability in comparison to other variants. Thus, to contain and study this variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, it is necessary to develop a specific molecular test to uniquely identify it. Using a completely automated pipeline involving deep learning techniques, we designed a primer set which is specific to SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 with >99% accuracy, starting from 8,923 sequences from GISAID. The resulting primer set is in the region of the synonymous mutation C16176T in the ORF1ab gene, using the canonical sequence of the variant B.1.1.7 as a reference. Further in-silico testing shows that the primer set's sequences do not appear in different viruses, using 20,571 virus samples from the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI), nor in other coronaviruses, using 487 samples from National Genomics Data Center (NGDC). In conclusion, the presented primer set can be exploited as part of a multiplexed approach in the initial diagnosis of Covid-19 patients, or used as a second step of diagnosis in cases already positive to Covid-19, to identify individuals carrying the B.1.1.7 variant.

Deep mining of early antibody response in COVID-19 patients yields potent neutralisers and reveals high level of convergence (preprint)

Passive immunisation using monoclonal antibodies will play a vital role in the fight against COVID-19. Until now, the majority of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody discovery efforts have relied on screening B cells of patients in the convalescent phase. Here, we describe deep-mining of the antibody repertoires of hospitalised COVID-19 patients using a combination of phage display technology and B cell receptor (BCR) repertoire sequencing to isolate neutralising antibodies and gain insights into the early antibody response. This comprehensive discovery approach has yielded potent neutralising antibodies with distinct mechanisms of action, including the identification of a novel non-ACE2 receptor blocking antibody that is not expected to be affected by any of the major viral variants reported. The study highlighted the presence of potent neutralising antibodies with near germline sequences within both the IgG and IgM pools at early stages of infection. Furthermore, we highlight a highly convergent antibody response with the same sequences occurring both within this study group and also within the responses described in previously published anti-SARS-CoV-2 studies.

Structural basis for broad coronavirus neutralization (preprint)

Three highly pathogenic {beta}-coronaviruses crossed the animal-to-human species barrier in the past two decades: SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2. SARSCoV-2 has infected more than 64 million people worldwide, claimed over 1.4 million lives and is responsible for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We isolated a monoclonal antibody, termed B6, cross-reacting with eight {beta}-coronavirus spike glycoproteins, including all five human-infecting {beta}-coronaviruses, and broadly inhibiting entry of pseudotyped viruses from two coronavirus lineages. Cryoelectron microscopy and X-ray crystallography characterization reveal that B6 binds to a conserved cryptic epitope located in the fusion machinery and indicate that antibody binding sterically interferes with spike conformational changes leading to membrane fusion. Our data provide a structural framework explaining B6 cross-reactivity with {beta}-coronaviruses from three lineages along with proof-of-concept for antibody-mediated broad coronavirus neutralization elicited through vaccination. This study unveils an unexpected target for next-generation structure-guided design of a pan-coronavirus vaccine.

Non-covalent TMPRSS2 inhibitors identified from virtual screening (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has prompted researchers to pivot their efforts to finding anti-viral compounds and vaccines. In this study, we focused on the human host cell transmembrane protease serine 2 (TMPRSS2), which plays an important role in the viral life cycle by cleaving the spike protein to initiate membrane fusion. TMPRSS2 is an attractive target and has received significant attention for the development of drugs against SARS and MERS. Starting with comparative structural modeling and binding model analysis, we developed an efficient pharmacophore-based approach and applied in a large-scale in silico database screening for small molecule inhibitors against TMPRSS2. A number of novel inhibitors were identified, providing starting points for further development of drug candidates for the treatment of COVID-19.

Environmental Dependence of the Structure of the C-terminal Domain of the SARS-CoV-2 Envelope Protein (preprint)

The SARS-CoV-2 envelope protein (E) is involved in a broad spectrum of functions in the cycle of the virus, including assembly, budding, envelope formation, and pathogenesis. To enable these activities, E is likely to be capable of changing its conformation depending on environmental cues. To investigate this issue, here we characterised the structural properties of the C-terminal domain of E (E-CTD), which has been reported to interact with host cell membranes. We first studied the conformation of the E-CTD in solution, finding characteristic features of a disordered protein. By contrast, in the presence of large unilamellar vesicles and micelles, which mimic cell membranes, the E-CTD was observed to become structured. The E-CTD was also found to display conformational changes with osmolytes. Furthermore, prolonged incubation of the E-CTD under physiological conditions resulted in amyloid-like fibril formation. Taken together, these findings indicate that the E-CTD can change its conformation depending on its environment, ranging from a disordered state, to a membrane-bound folded state, and an amyloid state. Our results thus provide insight into the structural basis of the role of E in the viral infection process.

Deep sequencing of B cell receptor repertoires from COVID-19 patients reveals strong convergent immune signatures (preprint)

Deep sequencing of B cell receptor (BCR) heavy chains from a cohort of 19 COVID-19 patients from the UK reveals a stereotypical naive immune response to SARS-CoV-2 which is consistent across patients and may be a positive indicator of disease outcome. Clonal expansion of the B cell memory response is also observed and may be the result of memory bystander effects. There was a strong convergent sequence signature across patients, and we identified 777 clonotypes convergent between at least four of the COVID-19 patients, but not present in healthy controls. A subset of the convergent clonotypes were homologous to known SARS and SARS-CoV-2 spike protein neutralising antibodies. Convergence was also demonstrated across wide geographies by comparison of data sets between patients from UK, USA and China, further validating the disease association and consistency of the stereotypical immune response even at the sequence level. These convergent clonotypes provide a resource to identify potential therapeutic and prophylactic antibodies and demonstrate the potential of BCR profiling as a tool to help understand and predict positive patient responses.